lookin at lucky is one of several sons of smart strike who are expanding that mr. prospector stallion’s lasting influence

Tags

genetics, lookin at lucky, smart strike

Accelerate (by Lookin at Lucky) won the Gold Cup Handicap on May 26 to pair with his Santa Anita Handicap, both Grade 1, and those victories make him look like the best older horse on the West Coast at 10 furlongs, at least unless West Coast (Flatter) comes out of hibernation and asserts some of his best form.

On the East Coast, Money Multiplier (Lookin at Lucky) won the G2 Monmouth Stakes, racing nine furlongs on turf to raise his total earnings to $1.2 million.

The two winners above, along with Dr. Dorr (second in the Gold Cup), have marked this as a powerful weekend for Ashford Stud stallion Lookin at Lucky, a son of multiple leading sire Smart Strike and a winner of the Eclipse Award as top of his division at 2 and 3, when he also won the G1 Preakness Stakes.

Despite being such a good juvenile himself, Lookin at Lucky tends to get stock that improve with age and distance, and frequently they show some added class on turf.

The gods of racing (and breeding) do not reveal how the transmission of athleticism and racing vigor works it way from generation to generation. Breeders try to read the runes of inscrutable pedigrees, and the secret sits in the darkness outside the pale light from our torches. And laughs.

That has been the status quo of our knowledge of inheritance and genetics for a century. Oh, yes. We have made advances in understanding what genes and chromosomes are and tinkering out some of the mysteries of how they work, and we have decoded genomes of this critter and the other. Sort of.

We still know more about shadows than substance.

Take, for instance, the situation one sees with the sons of the Mr. Prospector stallion Smart Strike. A winner in six of eight starts, Smart Strike wouldn’t have been a stallion prospect of any significance, except for the two races he won in July and August 1996. In July at Monmouth Park, the sleek bay won the Grade 3 Salvator Mile by 2 1/4 lengths for owner-breeder Sam-Son Farms and trainer Mark Frostad.

Smart Strike had won four races in sequence previously in maiden and allowance company, and he had been impressive enough that even with a jump into a graded stakes, the colt started as the odds-on choice, and he performed like it. In his next start, the G1 Phillip H. Iselin Handicap at Monmouth a month later, Smart Strike was the third choice against a notably saltier field that included champion and race favorite Serena’s Song (by Rahy), major winner Eltish (Cox’s Ridge), Petionville (Seeking the Gold), and Our Emblem (Mr. Prospector), later the sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner War Emblem.

On the day, Smart Strike won by 2 ¼ lengths from Eltish, Serena’s Song, and Petionville in 1:41.59 for 1 1/16^th miles. That was strong form, and when the bay son of Mr. Prospector raced for the G1 Woodward Stakes in three weeks, he was second favorite to Horse of the Year Cigar. The latter won the race, and Smart Strike, after battling on or near the lead for a mile, then “weakened” in the final furlong to be fourth.

That was Smart Strike’s eighth and final start, and he went to stud at Lane’s End as yet another talented son of Mr. Prospector, and there was no shortage of those standing around Kentucky, or even at Lane’s End, which also stood the Mr. Prospector horse Kingmambo.

All in all, Smart Strike wasn’t the best-looking, not the biggest, nor the fastest, and not even the fanciest pedigreed son of his famous sire. But over time, Smart Strike has proven marvelously successful at siring high-class horses and at propelling his genetic values into the succeeding generations through his sons and daughters.

At stud today, there is no question that the leading son of Smart Strike is Horse of the Year Curlin, currently 6^th on the general sire list in North America and perennially a sire with stock who contend for the premium races around the country. Getting one really good son is more than most stallions manage, and having two (Curlin and Lookin At Lucky) in the top 20 is a significant accomplishment. Having a third in the top 30 sires (champion English Channel) seems to be establishing a trend, and then Smart Strike’s son Square Eddie – a high-class winner of the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at 2 – is just about the most successful stallion standing in California.

Smart Strike’s continuation through such a diverse but high-quality group of sons, plus some good producing daughters, indicates that his genetic contribution is a positive one, and yet we find ourselves nearly as much in the dark about why and how this transmission of excellence works as breeders did a century ago.

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crown queen proves herself to be another jewel in her sparkling family with g1 victory at keeneland

Tags

ben leon, bill mott, crown queen, delta princess, royal delta, smart strike

In one more example of how racehorses repay those who do the right thing for them, the seven-figure weanling Crown Queen became a Grade 1 winner in Keeneland’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

Besilu Stables had purchased the filly out of the Chanteclair Farm dispersal of the late Saud bin Khaled at the 2011 Keeneland November sale. The hammer price of $1.6 million was strong, but the dark brown filly was a half-sister to the top-class Royal Delta (by Empire Maker). It looks soft now.

Their dam is the wondrous producer Delta Princess (A.P. Indy), who has four black-type horses from five foals to race. A G3 stakes winner herself, Delta Princess was a talented racer out of a fine producer, Lyphard’s Delta, and this is a family that was cultivated at Chanteclair to produce an amazing proportion of stakes horses over the years.

A winner of the G2 Nassau Stakes at age three, Lyphard’s Delta, a daughter of champion older mare Proud Delta (Delta Judge), was a grand producer as well. Her two daughters by A.P. Indy, Delta Princess and her year-younger sister Indy Five Hundred, put their dam on the map as a serious producer. Delta Princess won three times at the G3 level, and her full sister won the G1 Garden City Breeders’ Cup Handicap.

As an older mare of 18, Lyphard’s Delta produced G1 winner Biondetti (by A.P. Indy’s champion son Bernardini), and the old mare was provided for by the estate and not sent through the ring at Keeneland like the production-age Delta Princess and her offspring.

In the dispersal at Keeneland November, Delta Princess brought $2.6 million with a March 20 cover to leading sire Distorted Humor. Her champion daughter Royal Delta brought $8.5 million as a racehorse and potential producer. She went on to become a multiple champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, as well as $4.8 million.

The foal now named Crown Queen went through the ring immediately following her dam and brought a million dollars less.

Following the filly’s accomplishments this year, her value is much greater, and fascinating prospects stretch out before her. Besilu Stables purchased both Royal Delta and her weanling half-sister. Besilu campaigned Royal Delta extensively, as the grand mare showed class, versatility, and soundness that led her to divisional championships in 2011, 2012, and 2013.

This is a family of racers, especially race fillies, that have shown a great deal of class and that have improved markedly with time. None have been exceptional juveniles, and the same proved true with Crown Queen.

From two starts last year, Crown Queen was third in each. But she has improved out of sight this season, stepping through maiden and allowance victories to win the G2 Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga, and she reached a new level with a determined success in the G1 at Keeneland on Saturday.

Crown Queen is unbeaten in four starts this year, and there is every reason to expect she has some further improvement to come.

In the aftermath of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, trainer Bill Mott noted that owner Ben Leon of Besilu Stable “wanted to give her some time over the winter to mature and grow up a little bit. He made a good call.”

The skills of the trainer and the patience of the ownership have allowed Crown Queen to come to herself naturally, and Mott said, “It was a very special win for me since I trained her mother (Delta Princess) and her grandmother (Lyphard’s Delta) and a lot of the family (including Royal Delta). It’s a very meaningful win for me.”

This pinnacle of success also shows that Crown Queen is maturing and improving at a rate typical of this family and typical of the progeny of the filly’s sire, Smart Strike.

Twice the leading sire in the nation, Smart Strike is proving year after year that he is one of the most important sons of Mr. Prospector, whose other sons include leading stallions Fappiano, Forty Niner, Seeking the Gold, Kingmambo, and Woodman.

This year, Smart Strike has G1 winners Crown Queen and Minorette, as well as four G2 winners and a G3 winner. Five of the seven graded winners are fillies or mares, but Smart Strike made his name as a sire of top-class colts like Horse of the Year Curlin, champion turf horse English Channel, and top sprinter Fabulous Strike.

And Smart Strike is breeding on. Curlin, sire of 2012 Belmont Stakes and 2013 Metropolitan Handicap winner Palace Malice, and English Channel, sire of 2013 Travers winner V.E. Day, are both showing that there is a lot of stamina in this branch of Mr. Prospector.

Considering the stamina that Smart Strike can impart, the strength of Royal Delta’s G1 performances over 10 furlongs, and the emphatic way that Crown Queen battled out the finish of her G1 victory, a step up in trip might allow the filly to achieve an even higher ranking among her contemporaries.

*The preceding post was first published earlier this week at Paulick Report.

smart strike succeeds with a wide variety of types and aptitudes

Tags

lane's end farm, mr. prospector, smart strike, stallion success

The following first appeared in the Paulick Report sale special prior to the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale of select 2-year-olds in training at Palm Meadows.

A multi-year leading national sire, Smart Strike sires a wide variety of excellent athletes, such as the top sprinter Fabulous Strike, the champion turf performer English Channel, champion juveniles Lookin at Lucky and My Miss Aurelia, and Horse of the Year Curlin.

Several of Smart Strike’s top performers have shown their best form when given time and sometimes a good deal of distance, but the successful son of the great sire Mr. Prospector is also the sire this year of the most expensive 2-year-old sold in training.

That big performer in the sales ring was the gray colt who topped the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company’s auction week before last at $1.8 million. The leading sales colt was from a prominent family developed by the leading breeder Edward ‘Ned’ Evans and sold initially at the dispersal of stock from the Evans estate.

Let’s not jinx anyone by predicting a similar result in the Fasig-Tipton sale of juveniles in training held at Palm Meadows, but Smart Strike does have a pair of promising juveniles entered in the sale as Hips 19 and 71.

The first is a filly out of the unraced Unbridled’s Song mare Music Room, a half-sister to the smashing performers Music Note (by A.P. Indy), winner of the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, Mother Goose, Gazelle, and Beldame Stakes; and Musical Chimes (In Excess), winner of the G1 French 1,000 Guineas and John Mabee Handicap. The filly’s third dam is champion It’s in the Air (Mr. Prospector), and this filly is inbred to the landmark sire Mr. Prospector 2x5x4.

Hip 71 is a chestnut colt who is the first foal out of the Rahy mare Tejida, a winner of more than a quarter-million dollars who ran second or third in the Bewitch, The Very One, Doubledogdare, Gallorette, and All Along, all G3 stakes named for famous racemares. This colt’s second dam is the multiple G3 winner Batique, a daughter of Storm Cat.

As a leading sire, Smart Strike has earned excellent books of mares with deep pedigrees, as the preceding pair of yearlings indicate. The stallion’s best books of mares have come in his latter years as the 21-year-old stallion has continued to succeed at a high level. Smart Strike was sired when Mr. Prospector was 22, and this is a sire line that continues producing premium individuals at a very late age.

Although Smart Strike is the last-surviving son of Mr. Prospector at the top of the stud fee list ($85,000 live foal), there are also Not for Love ($15,000), Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus ($7,500), and major winner E Dubai ($7,500), who sired Fort Larned, winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

dullahan is confirming the class of this year’s crop of 3yos

Tags

class in the dam, comparative form, dullahan, even the score, mining my own, pacific classic, smart strike

The following post first appeared earlier this week at Paulick Report.

Amid tears and lamentation, fans and professionals have read reports of too many of the starring 3-year-old colts from this year’s Triple Crown having been injured, and I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Union Rags have been retired.

While half of the top 10 members of the class seemingly have been sent to the sidelines, a few others asserted their growing importance to the game with victories this weekend. In addition to the exciting dead-heat by Alpha and Golden Ticket in the Grade 1 Travers, Dullahan took on the older generation in the G1 Pacific Classic over 10 furlongs at Del Mar and proved a noteworthy winner, setting a new course record in the process.

Dullahan’s performance was doubly important as a testament to the quality of this crop of 3-year-olds. Third in the Kentucky Derby, Dullahan has proven that the exertions of the Triple Crown did not lay waste to the entire generation, and the chestnut colt’s strong performance at Del Mar indicated that the level of ability among this year’s 3-year-olds is at least up to par.

One of the annual questions among breeders and owners and racing fans alike is how the next generation of racers compares to its predecessors. This is a question that is challenging to answer definitively but is best assessed with multiple lines of form from competition on the racetrack.

Even before the Pacific Classic, some informed observers had begun to lament the possibility that a crop that seemed to have several quite talented members might be reduced by injury to the point that it would have no adequate lines of comparison with the older horses.

Dullahan laid those fears to rest with a workmanlike but authoritative run through the stretch at Del Mar to capture his third G1 race against some of the best older horses in the country.

With 5-year-old Game On Dude second, 7-year-old Richard’s Kid third, and 7-year-old Rail Trip fourth, Dullahan had seasoned opposition who had shown their form at the game’s highest level. Game On Dude had won the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup last month, Richard’s Kid was second in that race and had won the G1 Pacific Classic and Goodwood Handicap two years ago, and Rail Trip was winner of the G2 San Diego Handicap over this course in his last start.

Divisional leaders Ron the Greek (Santa Anita Handicap and Stephen Foster) and Wise Dan (Clark Handicap) are racing in the East and will probably encounter Dullahan later in the season.

Bred in Kentucky by Phil and Judy Needham and Bena Halecky, Dullahan is the most successful racer yet by the Unbridled’s Song stallion Even the Score, who also has sired G1 winner Take the Points and the pro-tem 2-year-old champion filly in Puerto Rico, Score Classy.

Dullahan is also the younger half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (Birdstone), who was second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont Stakes. A big, good-looking colt with a classic-winning sibling, Dullahan sold for $250,000 at the 2010 Keeneland September yearling sale and is in the stable of Donegal Racing with trainer Dale Romans.

Dullahan has earnings of more than $1.7 million, with victories in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity, Blue Grass Stakes, and Pacific Classic.

The dam of Dullahan and Mine That Bird is the Smart Strike mare Mining My Own, who was unraced but has done stellar work in producing a pair of G1 winners.

Repeated success at the top level sends breeders hunting for the source, and Mining My Own has a useful but not illustrious female family. Therefore, it is likely that a significant contribution to her success as a producer lies with her sire Smart Strike, who has fashioned himself into one of the most important sons of his sire, Mr. Prospector.

In addition to being a multiple leading sire, Smart Strike is the sire of Horse of the Year Curlin, champion Lookin at Lucky, and other major performers, and as a premier stallion, Smart Strike is likely to become an increasingly important broodmare sire as his better daughters get to stud and are given chances with comparable stallions.

Mining My Own has a 2-year-old filly named Mezah by leading sire Tapit, was barren in 2011, and foaled a colt by Giant’s Causeway in 2012.

mining my own appears to be the mother lode

Tags

broodmare success, dullahan, mine that bird, mining my own, smart strike, uncertainties of breeding thoroughbreds

Breeding racehorses can appear deceptively simple at times. Either it works, or it doesn’t. Simple, sort of.

Many a mare gets nice foals, but they are all “woulda, coulda, shoulda” types who have talent, promise, and phhht! Nothing quite comes to fruition.

On the other hand, Mining My Own (an unraced mare by Smart Strike out of Aspenelle) makes getting G1 winners look easy. First the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (by Birdstone), the mare has produced $100k winner Brother Bird (Yonaguska) as her second, and Dullahan, last weekend’s winner of the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, for her third.

Not bad.

The mare has a yearling filly by Tapit that has to be one of the more desirable young prospects out there.

The produce record follows:

1st Dam: Mining My Own, ch, 2001. Bred by Lamantia, Blackburn & Needham/BetzThoroughbreds (KY). Unraced in NA, Eng and Fr.
	2006: MINE THAT BIRD, b g, by Birdstone. Raced 3 yrs in NA, 18 sts, 5 wins, $2,228,637. Won Kentucky Derby (g1), Grey Breeders’ Cup S. (g3), Swynford S., Silver Deputy S.; 2nd Preakness S. (g1), Borderland Derby; 3rd Belmont S. (g1), West Virginia Derby (g2). 2007: Brother Bird, dk b/ g, by Yonaguska. Raced 3 yrs in NA, 10 sts, 2 wins, $109,000. 2008: Barren. 2009: DULLAHAN. At 2: Won Breeders’ Futurity (g1); 3rd With Anticipation S. (g2). 2010: Unnamed foal, ch f, by Tapit.
	Broodmare sire: SMART STRIKE, b, 1992. Sire of 134 dams of 343 foals, 234 rnrs (68%), 174 wnrs (51%), 52 2yo wnrs (15%), 21 sw (6%).
	2nd Dam: Aspenelle, ch, 1990. Bred by Whitco Farm (ON). Raced 1 yr in NA, 4 sts, 2 wins, $68,425 (ssi = 13.25). 2nd Canadian Oaks (R). Dam of GOLDEN SUNRAY (f, Crafty Prospector, $87,720. Won Poinciana Breeders’ Cup Handicap.).

new stars for smart strike and grand slam

Tags

2yo racing, adirondack stakes, ashford stud, cajun beat, gone west, grand slam, lane's end farm, limehouse, measures of stallion success, millionreasonswhy, mr. prospector, my miss aurelia, saratoga racecourse, smart strike, spinaway stakes, stallion success, strong hope

The following post appeared earlier this week at Paulick Report.

My Miss Aurelia and Millionreasonswhy staged one of the most exciting races at Saratoga this season when they raced head and head through the stretch of the historic racetrack. My Miss Aurelia won the Adirondack Stakes by a neck from Millionreasonswhy, and their nearest opponent was 14 ¾ lengths behind. My Miss Aurelia completed the 6½ furlongs in 1:17.01, and the two closely matched fillies are likely to race against each other in the Grade 1 Spinaway on Sept. 4.

As close as the two fillies finished is about how close their sires, Smart Strike (My Miss Aurelia) and Grand Slam (Millionreasonswhy), started in the great sires stakes that determines who becomes increasingly popular and who gets shunted to the side.

In the beginning, they were closely matched on pedigree, as well as being G1 winners on the race track.

Smart Strike is a son of grand old Mr. Prospector, one of the great names in breeding history and the sire of more good stallions than any sire since Northern Dancer. Grand Slam is by Mr. Prospector’s son Gone West, who for a time hinted that he was going to found one of the more dominant branches of the Mr. Prospector tree of success.

And overall, the sons of Gone West have fared well. Zafonic and his full brother Zamindar have had success in Europe; Speightstown is one of the best here in the States; and Grand Slam once ranked as the son of Gone West with the most in his favor for long-term success.

When his first two crops age 3 and up included 14 graded stakes wins and such important performers as Cajun Beat (Breeders’ Cup Sprint), Limehouse (Brooklyn), and Strong Hope (Jim Dandy), Grand Slam became one of the hottest sires in Kentucky, but after his six subsequent crops only managed to double that number of graded victories, his rapidly ascending balloon of fame had flattened out. Although far from friendless among discerning breeders or yearling buyers, Grand Slam has some limitations in the minds of many. And it takes a truly special yearling, like Millionreasonswhy, who sold for $115,000, to bring six figures. This year, Grand Slam stood for only $15,000 live foal at Ashford Stud.

In contrast to the rapid rise of the ruggedly handsome Grand Slam, Smart Strike was just a bit sluggish with his earliest racers, and his first two crops age 3 and up managed only seven graded stakes victories, exactly half as many as the offspring of Grand Slam. Now, in the larger scheme of things, most stallions would be just fine to get seven graded wins in their careers, but Smart Strike was supposed to be “one of the ones,” and that start was disappointing. But there the competition between the near-contemporaries ended. With his next crop-year, Smart Strike added 11 graded stakes wins, and his stock just kept piling more fuel on the fire. The bonfire is only blazing higher.

Now, Smart Strike has more than 90 graded victories for his runners, has total progeny earnings of more than $86 million, has 79 stakes winners, and his most famous offspring include Horse of the Year Curlin, as well as champions Lookin at Lucky and English Channel. And to add cream to the eclair, Smart Strike has two dozen racers who have earned more than $500,000.

The rangy bay son of Mr. Prospector stands at Lane’s End Farm for $75,000, which is a certain indicator of his position in the intensely competitive stallion market. With the success that Smart Strike has enjoyed the past several years with Curlin, English Channel, Lookin at Lucky, and so many others, the stream of good mares is not going to stop.

Major winners like My Miss Aurelia may even cause the tide to rise higher.

inglorious: queen’s plate for the filly

Tags

abyssinia, al hattab, buckhar, dc international, hennessy, inglorious, noble strike, queen's plate, smart strike, stamina and speed, storm cat, the axe, waterbuck

Relatively few fillies win the Queen’s Plate, but Inglorious joined the list also populated by such as Nijinsky’s dam, Flaming Page (by Bull Page).

Inglorious is a daughter of the Storm Cat stallion Hennessy, who was a brilliant performer and tended to get a few athletes very much in his own mold. This appears to be one who also has the added dimension of stamina to aid her pursuit of higher goals.

Inglorious is the second stakes performer out of the Smart Strike mare Noble Strike. This is a classy family line of stakes winners that goes back to Wonderful Gal, a full sister to the good racehorse and stallion Al Hattab. They are by the Mahmoud stallion The Axe II and out of the imported English mare Abyssinia, a daughter of the very quick horse Abernant.

Another full sister, Waterbuck, produced Buckhar (by Dahar), who won the Washington DC International.

The produce record for Noble Strike follows:

1st Dam: NOBLE STRIKE, b, 1998. Bred by Arosa Farms Ltd. (ON). Raced 3 yrs in NA, 18 sts, 3 wins, $235,457 (ssi = 5.15). Won Belle Geste S. (R); 2nd Wonder Where S. (R); 3rd Jammed Lovely S. (R).
	2005: Sebastian’s Song, b g, by Cherokee Run. Raced 2 yrs in NA, 8 sts, 3 wins, $164,143. 3rd Plate Trial S. (R). 2006: Leopard Strike, ch c, by Tactical Cat.  Unraced in NA, Eng and Fr. 2007: Biasca, ch f, by Saint Liam.  Unraced in NA, Eng and Fr. 2008: INGLORIOUS. At 2: Won Ontario Lassie S., Fanfreluche S. At 3: Won Queen’s Plate S. (R), Woodbine Oaks – Presented by Budwei, La Lorgnette S.; 2nd Rachel Alexandra S. (gr. 3). 2009: Dixie Strike, b f, by Dixie Union.  Unraced in NA, Eng and Fr. 2010: Barren. 2011: Unnamed foal,  c, by Hard Spun.  Unraced in NA, Eng and Fr.
	Broodmare sire: SMART STRIKE, b, 1992. Sire of 131 dams of 327 foals, 211 rnrs (65%), 153 wnrs (47%), 47 2yo wnrs (14%), 17 sw (5%).
	2nd Dam: GREEN NOBLE, b, 1986. Bred by Michael & Reiko Baum (KY). Raced 5 yrs in NA, 53 sts, 8 wins, $350,760 (ssi = 6.82). Won Labor Day Handicap, Dowager S.; 2nd Canadian Breeders’ Cup H., Woodbine Breeders’ Cup Hcp., Princess Doreen Hcp.; 3rd Nassau S. twice, Chrysanthemum Handicap, Canadian Breeders’ Cup Hcp., Fort Erie Breeders’ Cup S. Dam of Sir Frederick (c, Alleged, $259,813. 2nd Valedictory Handicap.)

lookin at lucky: new ky stallions for 2011

Tags

bob baffert, champion racehorses, conformation versus performance, lookin at lucky, mike pegram, new ky stallions for 2011, racehorse conformation, sales evaluations, smart strike, stallion prospects

Lookin at Lucky (2007 b by Smart Strike x Private Feeling, by Belong to Me)

Ashford $35,000

One of the big three stallion prospects for 2011, all standing for $35,000 live foal, Lookin at Lucky is an obvious stallion prospect from every aspect of racing performance.

He has early maturity and was champion of his age at 2 and 3, he carried his speed a distance and won the classic Preakness Stakes at a mile and three-sixteenths, and he had the mental and physical toughness to stand at the top of his class throughout his career and retire sound.

Those are serious qualifications to be a stallion of consequence.

Physically, he has size, standing right at 16.2 hands, and the bay son of Smart Strike has the strong body, deep shoulder, well-shaped proportions, and quality that one would expect from a racehorse of his stature.

From the knees up, Lookin at Lucky is an outstanding animal by every measurement and proof of ability. But looking at his legs from the knees down, I am highly impressed by trainer Bob Baffert’s nerve and by the finesse of his training program for this horse.

Because Lookin at Lucky ain’t perfect.

In terms of what a sales agent or a textbook on conformation would tell us, Lookin at Lucky shouldn’t have had much of a chance as a racehorse. His pasterns are too long, too sloping, and his feet turn out, and you get the idea.

This is important for two reasons.

First, the textbook was wrong. This horse could run. He could run like a scalded dog. Now, I could bore you half to death with some thoughts on his proportions and exceptional balance and how these made his action more efficient. But the gist is that he could run. And yet, when standing up as a pudgy young athlete with a couple of vet citations on his record in the repository at the yearling sales, you couldn’t have given him away. The breeders had to buy him back for $35,000.

But when put into training and seen on the racetrack at the Keeneland April sale of 2yos in training, Lookin at Lucky made believers of plenty, selling for $475,000, and Baffert had the buyers to back his judgment and get the glory (and the gold). The horse won nine of 13 races and earned $3,307,278. Then owners Mike Pegram and partners sold Lookin at Lucky as a stallion prospect.

The second point about Lookin at Lucky’s conformation is less positive. Breeders have to race their foals by Lookin at Lucky or sell them. It’s that simple, and what can they imagine buyers are going to say if he produces foals that have his feet and legs? Even if they look exactly like Lookin at Lucky, what are they going to bring?

This is the poisonous conundrum of breeding and racing. With only a handful of exceptions, breeders have to sell at least some of their stock, and the marketplace has some very unusual ideas of what is good and bad, what is worth paying a bit for and what is not.

As Lookin at Lucky and hundreds of other horses prove every year, the best is what runs fastest.

who wants the breeding industry?

Tags

breeding in kentucky, breeding thoroughbreds, e dubai, economics of breeding, economics of racing, graded stakes, horse chestnut, smart strike, stallion population dat, stallions in kentucky, yankee gentleman

The post following was published earlier this week at Paulick Report.

 

There were four graded stakes this weekend, and all four winners were produced from covers to stallions standing in Kentucky … at that time.

But three of the four stallions are now gone. E Dubai’s son Aggie Engineer won the Grade 3 Native Diver at Hollywood, and E Dubai now stands at Ghost Ridge Farm in Pennsylvania. Yankee Gentleman’s daughter Washington Bridge won the G2 Bayakoa at Hollywood, and he now stands at La Mesa Stallions in Louisiana. Horse Chestnut’s daughter Askbut I Won’ttell won the G3 My Charmer at Calder, and he now stands at Drakenstein Farm in South Africa.

Smart Strike’s son Twilight Meteor won the G3 Tropical Turf Handicap at Calder. Of this quartet of stallions, only Smart Strike is still standing in Kentucky, and as a leading North American sire and as the sire of Horse of the Year Curlin, Smart Strike “ain’t going nowhere” to paraphrase Col. Phil Chinn.

Standing for $75,000 live foal at Lane’s End Farm, Smart Strike is the most commercial and most successful of the stallions above. The rest of the sires of this weekend’s graded stakes winners, however, were not bad stallions. They got winners and good stakes winners.

The primary difficulty for stallions and stallion managers in Kentucky is not that some horses succeed and others fail. The problem is that there isn’t enough market strength to support stallions just a hair below the top of the tree.

If a stallion in Kentucky doesn’t make it big and make it fast, the writing is on the wall, and he will have to find another home. And the pricing and breadth of the commercial stallion market drives the profitability of the horse business overall.

Looking back on this most profitable sector of horse breeding, there are trends over the past few decades that should worry not only breeders and farm owners but also all businesses, local governments, and even the legislators of Nowhereville (sometimes called Frankfort).

As a result of adverse economic pressure, the stallion population in Kentucky has been declining for 20 years. In 1991, the first year for which the Jockey Club Fact Book lists data for stallions and mares bred in Kentucky, 499 stallions in the Commonwealth covered 14,595 mares, which represented 21.5 percent of the North American Thoroughbred population.

In 2001, 449 stallions covered 20,281 mares, which were 32.2 percent of the NA breeding population.

In 2010, using the most current numbers from the Jockey Club, only 271 remaining Kentucky stallions covered 17,085 mares.

During this 20-year span of statistics, the number of Kentucky stallions has declined by 45.7 percent. Those stallions are covering more mares, in line with the expanding stallion books of this period, but those mares covered in Kentucky are producing fewer foals in the Commonwealth.

That means there are three factors all exerting greater pressure on breeding in the Bluegrass. First there are fewer Kentucky stallions to use, then there are fewer resident mares, and finally, a significant part of the cause is that there are more state-incentivized breeding programs in competition with Kentucky that offer more money for less risk.

As one prominent Louisiana breeder said, “I’d be fool to let a mare drop a foal in Kentucky, where there isn’t any breeder money. I have to bring them all back here to foal because they earn me 22 percent of any purse money they win for finishing one-two-three. You breed a handful of decent runners, and you’re into six figures by June.”

Furthermore, most of these “regional” programs offer bonuses for owners who stand stallions in their states.

So, if a stallion is doing well in Kentucky but not well enough to make a lot of money by selling dozens of seasons and getting strong returns at the yearling sales, he is a likely prospect to relocate to a regional market where the incentives are sizable.

A similar but more dramatic change of circumstances has happened to the Standardbred breeders in Kentucky. Although not quite as dominant as Kentucky’s Thoroughbred farms, Standardbred breeding was significant in the Bluegrass, once upon a time.

In 1984, 95 Standardbred stallions covered 2,270 mares in Kentucky, and only 18 years later, 30 stallions bred 680 mares in the Commonwealth. The power in Standardbred breeding is not Kentucky but New Jersey, somewhat less well-known as the “horse capitol of the world.”

Which region will be the power in Thoroughbred breeding in 25 to 30 years? Surely the one that wants this industry the most. It’s as simple as that.

 

good karma and good racers with smart strike

Tags

haskell, lane's end, leading sires, lookin at lucky, mark frostad, patrick lawley-wakelin, sam-son farm, smart strike

The following article appeared earlier this week on Paulick Report.

The Mr. Prospector stallion Smart Strike has good karma with Monmouth Park. Fourteen years ago, Smart Strike won the Philip H. Iselin Handicap at the New Jersey track. It was one of his six victories from eight starts, but the Iselin was the most important. The race gave Smart Strike the all-important Grade 1 success that guaranteed him a spot at stud in Kentucky at a major farm where he would have a serious chance to succeed as a sire.

In the Iselin, Smart Strike ran a Beyer Speed Figure of 115, which was impressive as it looked, with champion Serena’s Song among the beaten field. At that point, Smart Strike had won six races in a row, and with his pedigree, he was an instant stallion prospect of great significance.

The bay stallion has made the most of his opportunities: getting Horse of the Year Curlin, champion turf horse English Channel, perennial leading sprinter Fabulous Strike, and last year’s champion juvenile colt Lookin at Lucky.

There is a notable amount of versatility in that stud record. Much more so than we typically see among contemporary sires, most of whom tend toward specialties.

If Smart Strike has a specialty, it might be in siring winners of the Preakness Stakes, as both Curlin and Lookin at Lucky have won the Pimlico classic.

Unraced since his victory in the Preakness, Lookin at Lucky polished up the family karma at Monmouth with a facile victory on Sunday in the Haskell. That race was a G1, but that point made much less difference to the handsome bay, as he was already a multiple winner at the premier level.

The Haskell, however, established Lookin at Lucky as the leader of his age group because he defeated Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, as well nearly every other 3-year-old colt with pretensions to dominating the division.

All these things are good news for breeders coming to the yearling sales this year with stock by Smart Strike. As a leading sire and sire of champions, the fillies and colts by Smart Strike will get their fair share of lookers.

But, as with some other top stallions, it took the proof of racing performances before buyers would shell out major money to purchase Smart Strike yearlings, in particular. Many of them can appear somewhat immature at that stage, and the stallion tends not to sire the really big, thick yearlings with strongly defined muscles that the sales market rewards with premium prices.

Even without the unequivocal backing of the commercial market, Smart Strike has become a successful sire because he passes along enough of the proper athletic tools, which he possessed himself.

When I spoke last year with Smart Strike’s trainer, Mark Frostad, he said the horse was “cut out to be a top-class 3-year-old but didn’t win a stakes until he was 4 because he was injured at 3 – tore a tendon where it attaches to the foot, which required time to heal, and he was out for a year.”

The stallion’s breeder, Sam-Son Farm, raced the bay colt produced by their tremendous broodmare Classy ‘n Smart (by Smarten), and Sam-Son stayed involved with Smart Strike after they chose to syndicate him and send him to stud at Lane’s End for the 1997 breeding season.

Patrick Lawley-Wakelin, who is the bloodstock adviser to Sam-Son, said that “Mark Frostad said Smart Strike was going to be a good stallion. Sam-Son ended up keeping 10 shares in the horse, and that was an awful lot to keep because it was a big commitment on our part, and Mark was the architect of that.”

This family has also been a goldmine of top performers for the Sam-Son operation of the late Ernie Samuel, with such premium racers as Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Dance Smartly, an older half-sister to Smart Strike.

Lawley-Wakelin said, “Mark has done an extraordinary job with this family. We have worked on the matings and work to produce racehorses, which he trained, then kept the successful fillies, and put them into the broodmare band to produce more racehorses. It’s very rare these days for trainers to be involved in the bloodstock side of the business. For me, this has been the best job in the country because we not only planned the matings but raced the offspring for generations” of horses.