i’ll have another: what might have been

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arch's gal edith, Belmont Stakes, Brookdale Farm, flower alley, freddie seitz, harvey clarke, i'll have another, steve shahinian, Triple Crown

The following post appeared earlier this week at Paulick Report. Today, trainer Doug O’Neill announced that I’ll Have Another will not race in the Belmont Stakes due to a tendon problem.

The odds are long against breeding a horse who wins the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, then gets to race for the Triple Crown. But Harvey Clarke has bucked the odds. He bred the talented chestnut colt I’ll Have Another, who will take the Test of the Champion on Saturday in an attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

As the flags in the Belmont Park infield pop in the wind, as the O’Neill brothers’ hearts bang in their chests with excitement, and as jockey Mario Gutierrez listens to his horse among the thundering multitudes when I’ll Have Another heads down the stretch of the Belmont Stakes, their chance of a lifetime might never have existed if Clarke and others had made different decisions at any point along the process in producing the classic winner.

Like many other Thoroughbred breeders, Clarke is a successful businessman, and he uses seasoned advisers to help direct his horse breeding and racing stable. Clarke has Steve Shahinian to select racing stock for him and to help decide which of those Clarke breeds should be sold as surplus to the stable.

So Shahinian recommended that the breeder sell the immature-looking I’ll Have Another as a yearling. The other side of that coin is that Shahinian also had urged Clarke to buy the colt’s dam, the Arch mare Arch’s Gal Edith, for $80,000 at the OBS March sale of 2-year-olds in training in 2004.

The filly had ability and was unbeaten in a single start.

Shahinian said, “The fillies out of the racing stable are the ones that become broodmares if we think there’s anything there to work with. We retired Arch’s Gal Edith to stud because she was a really promising racehorse who fit our program. From mischance, she did not get to express what we thought she had the ability to do, but there was some genuine talent that the trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, felt sure went untapped.

“Arch’s Gal Edith was always robust but more of a linebacker than an offensive lineman. She was strong in the same way that her son Those Wer the Days (by Thunder Gulch) is strong. But she also had enough leg and bone under her to do what she needed to do.

“One of the negatives with her is that she put a lot into her training. You never asked her to do anything and she wasn’t ready to do it. She was very forward physically and mentally in her attitude toward training and racing. She was also an impressive mover for a filly who wasn’t really big.”

[When I saw the mare at Brookdale Farm near Versailles, Ky., two weeks ago, I put her at 15.3 hands or just a touch more.]

She is big enough, strong enough, and appeared to have talent enough to be quite a good horse. It’s all the more disappointing that she didn’t get to show it.

Had Clarke let his disappointment get the better of him and sold Arch’s Gal Edith, she might have bred a classic winner from somebody else. Or not at all.

Clarke has plenty of experience in racing, however, and he plays the game for the long term. As a result, he held onto the mare and bred her to good horses. Her third mate was Travers winner Flower Alley (Distorted Humor), who was suggested to Clarke by Freddie Seitz of Brookdale Farm, where Clarke keeps Arch’s Gal Edith and her foals.

Freddie Seitz wears different hats at different times of the year at Brookdale, but in advising Clarke about his mares, Seitz suggested Flower Alley because “of really liking him as a racehorse. He had speed and carried it in his Travers victory and in the Breeders’ Cup to be second. He seemed like a typical Distorted Humor, who puts speed into his offspring but also gets a lot who can carry it. That’s why I liked Flower Alley as a stallion prospect, and we tried to get him as a stallion for Brookdale. That did not happen, but we liked him, used him, and bred his stakes winner Bouquet Booth.”

Clarke agreed, and the mating produced I’ll Have Another, by far the best offspring of his sire and the leading colt of 2012.

But nobody knew what destiny awaited the chestnut son of Arch’s Gal Edith when he was a young colt frolicking in the fields of Brookdale.

As Brookdale’s yearling manager, Seitz was very familiar with the colt and said that I’ll Have Another was the “most middle-of-the-road type yearling you could have. He was medium-sized, no real issues, very mellow personality. He was a good mover and walker, but we have a lot of nice movers who don’t go on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Compared to how immature he had been, he looked like a different horse by sales time, had improved from what he had been earlier in prep, but still he wasn’t the type who really wowed buyers in September.”

Bought for a song ($11,000) in September, I’ll Have Another was much stronger when presented for resale at the OBS April last year. But even there, the quick chestnut found few friends in the buying public aside from Dennis O’Neill, who picked him up at $35,000 for the account of Paul Reddam.

The karmic connections of so many people who made so many independent decisions will converge on the racetrack at Belmont Park this Saturday afternoon. As tempting as it might be for us to wonder “what if?” there is every reason to believe that changing the steps along this stairway to stardom would mean that Bodemeister would be racing for the Triple Crown instead.

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the triple crown and the valuation of stallion prospects

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distorted humor, flower alley, i'll have another, Triple Crown, valuation of stallion prospects

The following post first appeared earlier this week at Paulick Report.

Every spring at this time, a stallion manager’s thoughts turn to the glittering proposition of newly minted classic performers who should be the most attractive stallion prospects for the following year’s breeding season.

Such thoughts are rampant in times of plenty, but these are not. Furthermore, the stallion farms that have ventured into deep waters for stallion acquisitions over the past few years have had to suffer the sharp arrows of ill fortune as the world economy turned head over heels.

As a result, there is a distinctly different tenor to the thoughts of those who make stallions regarding Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner I’ll Have Another, a son of the young and relatively unproven sire Flower Alley, who is a Travers winner by perennial leading sire Distorted Humor.

As one well-known stallion manager said, “If he were by Distorted Humor, he’d be worth a ton. But I’ll Have Another is by Flower Alley. So I don’t know what the market is going to do.”

Farm owners and breeders are in unison praising the colt’s courage and athleticism, as well as his stamina and high class. But, perhaps to the relief of owner Paul Reddam, the stallion marketers are notably cooler and more conservative in their approach to this dual classic winner than they have been with many others of the recent past.

The demand for premium stallion prospects in the late 1990s and during the first decade of the new millennium pushed prices annually higher. The stallion rights to Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus sold for approximately $50 million in the feverish days after his impressive sole classic victory in 2000.

And while Fusaichi Pegasus was rather the paragon in terms of pedigree and physical appeal, winning two legs of the Triple Crown put high valuations on one young racehorse after another. Most recently, the unbeaten Smarty Jones and Big Brown were the focus of intense lobbying by stallion farms, breeders, and their representatives, and as a result of the frenzy over their prospects, they were packaged as stallion commodities before ever competing in the Belmont Stakes.

Both those horses were scooped up by the polished political prowess of Three Chimneys Farm, which also stands Flower Alley, the sire of I’ll Have Another. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is the second G1 winner by Flower Alley. The first was Ashland Stakes winner Lilacs and Lace in 2011.

Only five years ago, Flower Alley was covering his first book of mares for a fee of $25,000 live foal, but the international economic implosion wrecked the economics of the breeding business, along with many other things. As a result, at the beginning of the 2012 breeding season, seasons to Flower Alley were advertised for $7,500 live foal and were available for less with some negotiation.

The economically wrenching point of the situation is that demand has evaporated so greatly for horses in Kentucky beneath the top 25 stallions that Flower Alley wasn’t close to having a full book at even those figures. But with the appearance of a top-class son, now a dual classic winner, the stallion’s book has swollen to upwards of 125 mares.

So despite the fact that the depressed stallion market is generating less hype around any potential syndication of I’ll Have Another, the colt’s game and good work on the racetrack is placing his sire squarely in the crosshairs of many sharp-shooting breeders around the country.

In this regard, I’ll Have Another may be more similar to Real Quiet than to some other winners of the classic double in the last 15 years or so. Both Real Quiet and I’ll Have Another sold rather poorly as yearlings but grew up well and became outstanding athletes.

As a result, their continuing performances on the racetrack made them important prospects as stallions. The stallion rights to Real Quiet, in fact, sold for about $36 million, and the deal also allowed owner Mike Pegram to continue racing his champion son of Quiet American, which he did through the horse’s 4-year-old season.

The economics of breeding, combined with the reticence of breeders, may well encourage Reddam to continue racing his classic winner through both this season and the next. Whether I’ll Have Another wins the Triple Crown or not, the prospect of his courage and class as an adornment to the sport is something for all to savor.

kentucky derby winner shows it’s ‘all in the family’

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arch, arch's gal edith, claiborne farm, classic winner, distorted humor, economics of breeding, flower alley, harvey clarke, i'll have another, Kentucky Derby, Rob Whiteley, steve shahinian, three chimneys farm

The following post first appeared earlier this week at Paulick Report.

Winning a classic puts the shine on any pedigree, but the luster from I’ll Have Another’s success in Saturday’s Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs could not have come at a more opportune time for the colt’s sire, the young stallion Flower Alley, whose second crop are now 3-year-olds.

From the third crop by leading sire Distorted Humor, Flower Alley followed his sire’s classic winner, champion Funny Cide, and second-crop star, multiple G1-winner Commentator, but was the first top-class son of Distorted Humor who was a colt and could go to stud. Now, Flower Alley is the first son of Distorted Humor to sire a classic winner.

The chestnut son of Distorted Humor hit his greatest stroke on the racetrack with victory in the G1 Travers Stakes, and on the basis of that and other good form, he went to stud at Three Chimneys Farm for an initial stud fee of $25,000 live foal.

I’ll Have Another was one of 73 live foals bred on that stud fee from covers of 2008 (in the midst of the world economic crash) that were born in 2009, and the economic nail through Flower Alley’s coffin came the following year at the 2010 yearling sales when 39 yearlings – more than half his second crop – sold for an average of $15,674 and a median price of $11,000.

In one of the ironies of sales statistics and racing lore, I’ll Have Another was the median Flower Alley yearling at the sales. On the track, he has proven something entirely different.

So, for many breeders and observers, it’s a puzzle why Flower Alley’s stock was not better received at the sales.

Rob Whiteley of Liberation Farm bred a number of mares to the stallion from the beginning of his stud career and confesses to being puzzled also. He said, “The sales market is a mysterious thing and is often disconnected from the racetrack and from racing performance. The sales market is driven by word of mouth and hearsay from opinion-makers who often have their own agendas, and rather than cherishing a commitment to facts, seem to look through lenses that do not reflect reality. The one fact about the market that I’ve observed over 40 years is that it’s usually wrong. And breeders and buyers that didn’t line up for Flower Alley sure missed the boat. He earned my full respect when he defeated Grade 1 racehorses like Bellamy Road and Roman Ruler in the Travers, then ran second to Saint Liam in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Now he looks ready to take off with G1 winner Lilacs and Lace in his first crop and with the Kentucky Derby winner in his second crop.”

In contrast to the later reception of his yearlings at auction, the tall and scopy stallion found interest from breeders in his initial books, and among the promising young mares attracted to Flower Alley’s second season at stud was the dam of I’ll Have Another, Arch’s Gal Edith, a reference to the wife of television character Archie Bunker.

Steve Shahinian, adviser to breeder Harvey Clarke, said that “Freddie Seitz from Brookdale Farm suggested the mating of Flower Alley for Arch’s Gal Edith that produced I’ll Have Another. If you couldn’t breed to Distorted Humor, you could breed to Flower Alley, and he’s a horse who could go a classic distance, which we wanted.”

The dam of I’ll Have Another was always a well-intended young prospect. By the good sire Arch, whose most famous offspring is champion Blame, Arch’s Gal Edith made only one start, winning a maiden special at Belmont by three-quarters of a length in 1:11.58 for six furlongs.

Said Shahinian: “We thought a lot of this filly. I believed she was stakes caliber, and she trained like it.”

She had been lightly raced by chance, but not precisely from unsoundness. The filly showed enough ability at the sales of 2-year-olds in training to sell for $80,000 but, once sent to the trainer, fractured a hock from kicking the wall of her stall. Then after winning her maiden, she developed a small chip in an ankle, and the surgery to clean it out did not resolve smoothly, necessitating retirement.

Although the oddities of chance intervened in what promised to be a good racing career, Arch’s Gal Edith has produced three good winners from her first three foals, and the Kentucky Derby winner is her first black-type horse.

Breeder Clarke still has the mare and has a 2-year-old Tapit filly out of the mare named Gloria S, a reference to the daughter of Archie and Edith Bunker. Arch’s Gal Edith was given the following year off after foaling the Tapit, and earlier this year had a Midnight Lute foal that did not survive a difficult delivery. The mare was bred back to champion Gio Ponti about a week ago.

The sire of Arch’s Gal Edith is the Claiborne Farm stallion Arch, and stepping back a generation on the bottom and two generations on the top, this is a very Claiborne pedigree, as both champion juvenile Forty Niner (sire of Distorted Humor), second in the 1988 Kentucky Derby, and major winner Arch raced for the Hancock family’s Bourbon County operation.

Whereas Forty Niner was a homebred who became a champion and leading sire, Arch was purchased by Seth Hancock at the Keeneland July select yearling sale as a racing and stallion prospect who could offer some bloodlines and aptitude that would suit Claiborne well if the robust colt proved himself the real thing on the racetrack.

Arch was more than capable as a racer, winning the G1 Super Derby at 10 furlongs, and he has been increasingly successful as a sire. From the rather stout male line of Hail to Reason, English Derby winner Roberto, and his son leading sire Kris S., Arch tends to get stock that mature well and show their best form going a mile or more. In amongst ’em, however, Arch will get some speedier animals, such as the European G1 sprint winner Les Arcs, as well as the more typical Alabama winner Pine Island, Donn Handicap winner Hymn Book, Pan American winner Newsdad, and Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch.

This mating, in general terms, is a matching of speed with stamina, sturdiness with brilliance, and natural athleticism with perseverance. As I’ll Have Another showed through the stretch of the Derby on Saturday, he came to play with the right stuff.

is it all because of alydar?

Tags

age of mares, alydar, ashland stakes, calumet farm, fantasy stakes, flower alley, foaling rank, importance of pedigree, joyful victory, lilacs and lace, lucy black, my juliet, raise a native, refinement, Seattle Slew, stella madrid, Tapit, wild again, wild lucy black

A couple of unrelated stakes results over the weekend raised a couple of points of interest. In the G1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, the beautifully named 3yo filly Lilacs and Lace (by Flower Alley x Refinement, by Seattle Slew) won by a length, and the next day, Joyful Victory (by Tapit x Wild Lucy Black, by Wild Again) won the G2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn.

The first point of intrigue is that both fillies are out of mares who are a bit older than the commercial market is happy to accept. Some breeders, however, are loath to give up on nice mares who don’t hit the brass ring first time out, and in these cases, they were considerably rewarded with outstanding performers.

The Ashland winner is out of Refinement, who was 14 when the G1 winner was foaled. Refinement is a daughter of G1 winner Stella Madrid, a daughter of Alydar and champion My Juliet, who foaled her G1 winner at age 15.

The Fantasy winner is out of Wild Lucy Black, who was also 14 when the G2 winner was foaled. Wild Lucky Black is a daughter of the nonwinning Lucy Black, who was a spritely 8yo when she foaled the dam of the Fantasy winner. And Lucy Black is by the exceptional racehorse and sire Alydar, which brings us to the second point of interest.

Both of these outstanding young fillies have second dams by Alydar.

Well, that is coincidental, but interesting nonetheless. Alydar was an exceptional racehorse at 2 and 3, when his nemesis was champion and Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Alydar excelled when the pair went to stud, however, and the size, strength, and scope of Alydar proved powerful contributions to the breeding pool during his too-short life.

Alydar’s death precipitated the financial collapse of Calumet Farm, which had borrowed heavily in the late 1980s with Alydar as its primary means of generating cash.

But the brave chestnut son of Raise a Native remains an important element of pedigrees, especially through his daughters and now his granddaughters and their runners.