all that glisters is not gold; some is starshine

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bernardini, classic breeding, coil, commercial appeal, haskell, horse racing competition, jim dandy, monmouth, point given, repole stable, saratoga, stay thirsty, success and perception

The following article was published earlier this week at Paulick Report.

The second half of the season for the 3-year-old colts jumped into high gear over the weekend with the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga. The winners, Coil (by Point Given) and Stay Thirsty (Bernardini), present a fascinating study.

On the one hand, they have these things in common. Both appear to be improving colts who are supposed to be better as late 3-year-olds, strengthening and maturing as the division prepares to begin challenging the older horses. Both are by highly impressive classic winners who showed their best form at 10 furlongs, or more, in the case of Point Given’s Belmont Stakes.

From those facts, surely the perception would be that the merits of these sires are relatively comparable, right? Well, no. The perception is that one is a failure and that the other is the second coming of … well, A.P. Indy.

Point Given – despite his storied honors as champion 3-year-old, Horse of the Year, multiple classic winner, and a horse of exceptional talent – is “critter non grata” in the commercial marketplace. The big chestnut son of multiple classic winner Thunder Gulch is actually a decent sire, but the complexities of the marketplace have overwhelmed the horse’s good points. Now the rangy stallion is considered “acceptable” if breeders are going to breed and race but not if their program includes the goal of selling some of the yearlings profitably.

The status of Bernardini could hardly be more different. The second-leading freshman sire in 2010 to the “other” A.P. Indy stallion Congrats, Bernardini got several progressive 2-year-olds who won stakes, as well as a handful who raced well but with the promise of greater things at 3.

One such was Stay Thirsty, who was second in the G1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last year but also was the understudy to the Repole Stable’s champion juvenile colt, Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie). By making his 3-year-old debut with a victory in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, however, Stay Thirsty promised for a short while this spring to supplant Uncle Mo as the leading 3-year-old for Repole Stable.

Instead, the colt’s form went off the tracks with unplaced races in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. Those two finishes (seventh and 11th) were so bad it appeared Stay Thirsty had been overrated after his Gotham success. A solid second in the Belmont Stakes, however, suggested the colt was moving in the right direction after all, and his four-length victory in the Jim Dandy may project him as the favorite for the Travers.

If all goes well, Stay Thirsty should meet the top contenders out of the Haskell in the Travers, including the lightly raced winner Coil, Preakness winner Shackleford, and Belmont Stakes winner Ruler on Ice.

Such a contest among the better colts in training would be worth the price of the trip to the Spa. And Coil promises to keep it interesting. Now the winner in four of his six starts, the chestnut son of Point Given and the Theatrical mare Eversmile is a dramatic performer, preferring to race in front and gallop the daylight out of his opponents.

In both his losses, he was too impetuous, pulled hard, and finished second. Therefore, handicappers would have expected Coil’s slow start in the Haskell to have dashed his chances of success. The colt, however, displayed better control of himself, went to his competition on the turn, and finished well to win by a neck from Shackleford, who was 2 1/4 lengths in front of Ruler on Ice.

These three and Stay Thirsty make a solid-looking quartet for the Travers, and trying to gauge which will progress the most and stay the best at 10 furlongs will make handicapping the race more exciting.

The conundrum for breeders, however, is that a Travers victory by Stay Thirsty would be worth rather a lot for those with Bernardini stock to sell, whereas a victory by Coil would be worth rather little to those with yearlings by Point Given (not that it will hurt, of course).

But it is the brain-twisting reality of breeding racing prospects for the sales that once the buying public has made up its mind about a stallion, it is nearly impossible to alter that perception and make the horse’s stock generally profitable to produce.

This illogical situation, like the inconsistent treatment of race-day medication and a racing program fixated on racing six to eight furlongs, is one more difficulty that racing must deal with to advance itself and become the central focus that the Thoroughbred and its sport could be.

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dam of the factor smelling sweeter

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commercial appeal, greyciousness, miswaki, racehorse breeding, run away and hide, the factor

By the time that Greyciousness (1995 gray mare by Miswaki x Skatingonthinice, by Icecapade) produced G2 San Vicente Stakes winner The Factor in 2008, the broodmare was past her commercial peak.

In foal to a popular and commercial stallion like Stormy Atlantic at the Keeneland January sale in 2007, she brought only $47,000, for example. The Factor, who was a really nice foal, brought $50,000 in 2008, which is quite good for a foal by a $10,000 stallion. Yet her subsequent foal, by the stone-cold Cuvee, sold for $2,000.

And now the mare’s reputation has been reborn. As the dam of the most-watched 3yo sprinter of 2011, Greyciousness is a hot commodity once again. Her foal of 2010? A filly by Run Away and Hide who will be of interest to watch.

shift toward power led to fancier sales horses

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commercial appeal, native dancer, nexus of sport and society, power type, shift toward power, stride type

In his response to a recent post on the changing nature of the breed, Tinky wrote:

The “shift towards power,” in my view, had less to do with producing better racehorses than it did producing young horses that caught and filled the eye at sales. Moreover, the more muscular types are far more likely to breeze fast in the two-year-old sales.

In the context of the evolution of the contemporary Thoroughbred, several factors have played a role, including the commercial appeal of the power type, which tends toward greater muscularity and considerable speed.

Power horses have been with us as long as we have bred blooded stock. But most of them were limited. They really could not go a distance; many others could not handle top-class animals because they needed to dominate the beginning of the race, then coast home.

Regardless of the reasons, most power horses couldn’t succeed against good-class stride horses and were shunted aside, but that changed remarkably with Native Dancer. Even more than his sire, Polynesian, Native Dancer was able to translate his power into racing performances that were not limited.

Reading Charlie Hatton’s comments about Native Dancer reminded me of one comment attributed to Wayne Lukas: that the animal he was seeking at the sales was a tall Quarter Horse. And to a very significant degree, that is the power horse in a phrase.

The great majority of such horses, however, are limited (like The Green Monkey, for instance).

But the single fact that made breeders use the increasingly powerful lines associated with Native Dancer is that they kept winning major races.

Then, their good looks with bulging muscles and sharp speed made these stallions and their offspring natural recruits for the commercial vendors, and as yearlings or 2-year-olds in training, they played a major role in the development of the modern commercial market.

One other trait of value to all breeders is that the power horse is predictable (within reason, I mean). If you breed one or buy one that “ticks all the boxes” or otherwise meets the criteria, that horse is likely to have ability. It may not stay sound, it may not be able to race past three furlongs, it may have a speed-crazy mind, or several other faults. But it is very likely to have speed.

In the state of racing for the past 50 years, that is all that’s required to get a lot of winners.

In contrast, the stride horse who flits over the track, uses himself well, is sound for 50 starts, and is sometimes about as wide as my hand may also be unable to win a six-furlong race above maiden $10k or $20k. And where’s a trainer to find a 12-furlong maiden special or 14-furlong allowances and handicaps for horses that really need them?

So the breed has been caught in a conundrum of changing physical types, increasing economic pressures, and altered social inclinations.