Among the points of contention in the 2015 Kentucky Derby is which sire line will deliver the winner. Through the 1970s, the Bold Ruler line was eminent, and in the 1980s, Raise a Native’s descendants took a leading role, with Northern Dancer also in the ascendant, while Bold Ruler took a plunge in classic success.
Currently, breeders and racing fans have seen a massive resurgence of the Bold Ruler line through Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and his classic-winning son A.P. Indy. Although he doesn’t have any 3-year-olds in 2015, A.P. Indy is right there with five of the top 20 prospects for the Derby coming from his male line. That puts him in a tie with Northern Dancer and behind only the omnipresent force of Raise a Native’s most persistent son, Mr. Prospector, who has eight representatives, including Kentucky Derby favorite American Pharoah.
Three of the runners for A.P. Indy are sired by his son Malibu Moon, who is also the sire of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, now a sire at Claiborne Farm. Danzig Moon, Stanford, and Mr. Z are the Malibu Moons, and all will be longshots, although Danzig Moon ran a deceptively good second in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland behind Carpe Diem.
The two others for A.P. Indy are Upstart (Flatter) and Frosted (Tapit). Second in the G1 Champagne and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season, Upstart won the Holy Bull Stakes and ran a bang-up second behind Materiality (Afleet Alex) in the G1 Florida Derby, which is rated the top prep nationwide on the Beyer Speed Figures and by international handicappers. The dark bay son of Claiborne Farm stallion Flatter is a really good colt who has speed and adaptability. He offers genuine promise for the Derby but has to find something extra to get past Materiality, at least.
With victory in the Wood, Frosted improved notably on his juvenile form, which rated him behind the division stars represented here by juvenile champion American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), plus the highly regarded Dortmund (Big Brown), Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway), and Upstart.
The Derby is not run for 2-year-olds, however, and the colts who continue to improve and those who thrive markedly as they mature at 3 are sometimes the ones who wear the roses on the first Saturday in May.
Orb, for instance, was not a stakes winner at 2, but he advanced rapidly at 3 to win graded stakes, a G1, then the Derby. That is the same pattern followed by Big Brown, sire of Dortmund.
But many other classic performers showed high form at 2, including Pioneerof the Nile, Giant’s Causeway, Afleet Alex, and Tapit.
Likewise, A.P. Indy was a top juvenile. A grand-looking colt who grew into a splendid individual on the racetrack, A.P. Indy won three of his four starts as a 2-year-old, including the G1 Hollywood Futurity. His obvious excellence and potential marked him as a genuine classic gem for 1992.
The bay won his three preps for the Kentucky Derby with workmanlike efficiency. A.P. Indy clearly had things well in hand, and there was every indication that trainer Neil Drysdale had plenty left to work with as they approached the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, the son of Seattle Slew bruised a foot prior to the Derby and had to be scratched.
A.P. Indy came back to win the Peter Pan, then the Belmont Stakes. A colt who handled his racing well and appeared to retain his condition well, A.P. Indy was away from the races till September, when he lost his first two races back. Things were not looking well off the bare results of those races, but A.P. Indy picked up the ball and carried it to the end zone to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, cinching a championship as the best 3-year-old colt of 1992, plus Horse of the Year for his domination of all his competition.
Retired to stud at Lane’s End, where he is an honored pensioner to this day, A.P. Indy has had an illustrious stud career that has seen him sire champions and a long list of high-class performers. Over time, he has been recognized as the most classic influence in American breeding, and with his sons, and especially through his grandson Tapit, A.P. Indy looks sure to extend his classic quality to future generations.
bloodstock in the bluegrass 
This just arrived in my inbox. I assume it was accidentally clicked on and another article was intended. Raise a Native owns the Derby. They should build a statue to him at Churchill Downs. I haven’t had the time or the references, but has any sire line ever dominated the Derby as has Raise a Native? Maybe Nearco? I saw all three of Raise a Native’s races in New York 52 years ago. He was nothing short of amazing. He broke track records like they were giving them away. He and Northern Dancer came along in the same crop. Never anything like it before. Never anything like it since. There are only two words for it. Native Dancer. A statue to him will be erected this August at Saratoga. About time!
I just consulted wikipedia. The Raise a Native line accounts for 14 of the last 26 Derbys–and another five earlier.
Since the emphasis in this article is on AP Indy, I decided to use the Belmont Stakes to test the contention that AP Indy is “the most classic influence in American breeding.” And guess what. He isn’t. Not even close. Raise a Native/Mr Prospector dominate the Belmont even more than the Derby. Of the 26 Belmonts since 1990, The Raise a Native/ Mr Prospector line account for 16. The most classic influence in American breeding is Mr Prospector. And since 16 is more than half of 26, it’s probably a greater influence than all other lines combined. Can someone ANYONE please explain to me how this kind of misinformation/nonsense/rubbish gets propagated? Too bad the Jockey Club Gold Cup is no longer at two miles. Mr Prospector’s male line would probably account for 20 of the last 26. Yes, AP Indy was an OUTSTANDING sire, but he’s no Mr Prospector. And his impact on the Classics is minuscule compared to Mr Prospector’s. And no amount of “he’s been recognized as” can change that. In the words of that wonderful Latin expression, and I reproduce it untranslated, “Opinions are like assholes; everyone has one.”
OK, Barry. I have no problem with a great fan of Raise a Native cheering for the horse. He was a grand individual, and he has been a lasting influence on the breed, especially through Mr. P.
However, how much influence had the flaming red son of Native Dancer shown on the Derby by the end of the 1970s? His son Majestic Prince won in 1969, and grandson Affirmed won in 1978. That’s it.
To have suggested a changing of the guard at that time might have been met with comments about “rubbish” and “nonsense,” but time has shown that the Raise a Native set of Native Dancer has prospered greatly.
Unlike Raise a Native, A.P. Indy wasn’t born more than a half-century ago, and his influence, especially through sons and grandsons, is much more recent. If you do not believe that his influence on the classics will continue, you are entitled to such an opinion.
But I trust that in future you will not taint the discussion with personal aspersions and will express your opinions with politeness, even good humor.
Cordially yours,
Frank
Frank,
The facts simply aren’t with you. If I said Carry Back was the greatest sire of all time, I couldn’t invoke opinion as my defense. It would simply show that I didn’t know the meaning of the expression “greatest sire.” If someone told me that Ava Gardner was more beautiful than Elizabeth Taylor or that Hedy Lamarr was more beautiful than Ava Gardner, I would say to that person, “That’s your opinion.” If that same person told me that Eleanor Roosevelt was more beautiful than Elizabeth Taylor, I would say, “You apparently don’t know the meaning of the word ‘beautiful’.” (I betray my age with these comparators.) It is a matter of fact–not a matter of opinion–that Mr Prospector is “the most classic influence in American breeding.” If he isn’t, then words have no meaning and facts have no bearing. The list of Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes winners that trace back in the tail male to a horse dead not even 20 years is probably unprecedented in the history of American racing. The same thing is going on in Europe with Native Dancer’s grandson Northern Dancer.
At this very moment, as I write this, Mr Prospector is “the most classic influence in American breeding.” Nothing else even comes close. AP Indy by some miracle may supplant him. But that is more than a tall order. What you are saying is that he will produce the most successful classic tail male in the history of American racing–because that is what Mr Prospector’s has done and still doing. It is not only not showing signs of petering out, it is strengthening. We just had the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. Mr Prospector’s tail male. 10 of the last 15 Belmonts, Mr Prospector.
Finally, I disagree with you that “rubbish” and “nonsense” would have been uttered in the 1970s because in fact that is not what happened. The situation at the time and over the previous 15 years was being read through Native Dancer, who had been in the shadow of Bold Ruler (remember him?), a horse with an AEI so high that the difference between his AEI and the second best ever AEI could itself make an outstanding sire. Flying under the radar, Native Dancer was producing or grand-producing a series of champions and horses for the ages. There were Secret Step, a champion sprinter in Europe; Hula Dancer, one of the two or three greatest fillies in the history of France; Raise a Native, the fastest two-year old anyone had ever seen; Northern Dancer, out of his daughter Natalma; Atan, who would later sire Sharpen Up; Native Charger, winner of the Flamingo and Florida Derby; Sea Bird II, by his son Dan Cupid, generally considered the greatest European horse of the 20th century; Kauai King; Dancer’s Image. It was during this time that Charles Hatton in the Morning Telegraph called Native Dancer the most important international sire of the century (prescient!). Then Raise a Native had his first crop of 2-year-olds. One by one they started and one by one they won. Race followers were waiting for a Raise a Native to lose a race. Articles were being written about it. Suddenly, Bold Ruler seemed to have competition in the precocity arena. Voila, two years later Majestic Prince comes along. Then Native Dancer chimed in again with his grandson High Echelon and his great grandson Little Current; his great granddaughter Allez France; and his granddaughter Ruffian. Now, Raise a Native comes back with Affirmed; Genuine Risk; Coastal; Alysheba; Easy Goer. All sans Mr Prospector. A touch more extensive than you indicated.
By the time of Affirmed and Alydar, Raise a Native was regarded as the second coming. Leslie Combs had already placed him in the Number 1 stall at Spendthrift, moving Nashua to the other end of The Nashua Motel. Everyone thought Raise a Native was walking gold. When he was humanely destroyed in 1988, if you mentioned Bold Ruler in the same breath with him, people looked at you as if you had missed the boat. In The New York Times obituary for Raise a Native–yes,The New York Times had an obituary for Raise a Native–they called him “the most influential sire of Thoroughbred stallions over the last 20 years.”
Now, for all I know The New York Times doesn’t know squat about racehorses (although Steve Crist was the racing editor at the time, I believe), but I do. I saw Native Dancer lose the Kentucky Derby on television, the Swaps/Nashua match race, and every great American racehorse until today. When I open the Racing Form and look at a horse, I remember its mother and its father and their mothers and their fathers going back till time out of memory. At some time in the unforeseeable future, AP Indy’s line may be the most classic influence in American breeding. You don’t know that and I don’t know that. But what I do know is that in the world we live in today, the most classic influence in American breeding is Mr Prospector. That’s a fact–just like Barack Obama is the President of the United States is a fact.
Cordially and respectfully,
Barry
Frank mentions only the Derby and Raise a Native and the end of the 1970s in this graph:
“However, how much influence had the flaming red son of Native Dancer shown on the Derby by the end of the 1970s? His son Majestic Prince won in 1969, and grandson Affirmed won in 1978. That’s it.”
Frank doesn’t mention Native Dancer, the 1980s (Genuine Risk, Alysheba, Easy Goer) or the Belmont S (Coastal).
Frank was correct in what he wrote. That’s a fact.
Genuine Risk stands exactly in relationship to Raise a Native as does Affirmed. And Alysheba and Easy Goer being sons of Alydar stand in exactly the same relationship to Raise a Native since Exclusive Native and Alydar are both sons of Raise a Native. Coastal stands in the same relationship to Raise a Native since Majestic Prince is Raise a Native’s son and Coastal is Majestic Prince’s son. The issue, I felt, is the number of Classic-winning descendants of Raise a Native who are not through Mr Prospector. Frank listed Majestic Prince and Affirmed; I pointed out that there are also Genuine Risk, Coastal, Alysheba, and Easy Goer.
But I see where you’re coming from. That is why I began by pointing out that the reason no one would saying rubbish or nonsense to Raise a Native–and no one was–was that when Affirmed and Alydar came along–after Majestic Prince–it became obvious that the Native Dancer line, unlike the Bold Ruler line, was able to perpetuate itself and it was clear that Raise a Native was going to do it. (Coastal, by the way, did come along in the 70’s; he defeated Spectacular Bid in the 1979 Belmont Stakes.) Also, and for some reason I can’t fathom, a revisionist history–which makes for a good story–has grown up around Mr Prospector, who came along in Secretariat’s year. This revisionist history has it that he was an average horse at best. Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. Mr Prospector won half his races, and set two dazzling track records in the process. He forced Forego to run one of the greatest races of his career to just catch him before the wire in, I believe, the Carter. His first crop hit in ’78 and the rest is history.
Anyone who lived through 70s racing–and I did–remembers it as the Golden Era and apex of the Bold Ruler line. But by the end of the decade, Bold Ruler had been dead for eight years already and it was painfully obvious he had no successor, let alone successors. His one shot was Reviewer, with the exception of Secretariat, Bold Ruler’s greatest offspring–not in accomplishment but in sheer, unmitigated talent. And Reviewer was much more like Bold Ruler than Secretariat in every respect–and Ruffian was irrefutable proof of that. Alas, Reviewer died shortly after Ruffian, and with that ended all possibility of a Northern Dancer-like immortality for the greatest sire of racehorses that ever lived–if AEI’s are to be believed. But with Affirmed and Alydar, and then Coastal, the Raise a Native gang became the new Golden Boys. And it was only through Seattle Slew that Bold Ruler has managed to survive.
Even if it were true that “rubbish” and “nonsense” would have been the response to saying that Native Dancer/Raise a Native “will become the most classic influence in American breeding” and it wound up being true, it scarcely follows that every time someone says “rubbish and “nonsense” to something it winds up being true. It’s probably the worst form of reasoning after question begging.
But Frank, whom I clearly respect (why else would I follow him religiously?) didn’t say that AP Indy “will become,” (which is highly improbable), he implied that he already is (which is factually incorrect), and even more glaringly so given the Triple Crown outcome. I suspect people have just become bored with the Native Dancer/Raise a Native/Mr Prospector line. After all, how many Triple Crown races do the direct tail male descendants of Mr Prospector account for? Forty or so? How many do the Raise a Natives account for? Maybe seven more.? Native Dancer? Five or six more? What–over 50? So this unprecedented line, which just added another three–all that could be added–and in the process added a second Triple Crown (Affirmed the other) is not the most classic influence in American breeding but, by some abstruse, abstrahent, and incomprehensible chain of reasoning, AP Indy is. Remember, this is not like the extraordinary Bold Ruler run, which lasted–what?–10 or 12 years and then imploded before our very eyes. This run just celebrated its 50th Anniversary. The only thing else going on like it is Northern Dancer, Native Dancer’s grandson.
So, when is everyone in this sport going to finally get it? There have been only three important thoroughbred horses since 1900. The God of Them All–Phalaris, and his two Apostles–Nearco and Native Dancer. They are the axioms; everything else is theorems. Think of Northern Dancer as the central limit theorem of thoroughbred racing.
Horses today don’t look like they did when I started watching racing in the 1950s. Virtually every horse today looks like one topological transformation of Native Dancer or another. This would not surprise Evan Shipman, the most perspicacious and authoritative writer on thoroughbred racing and harness racing that ever lived. If you’ve read every issue of the Morning Telegraph and Daily Racing ever published, as I have, you’ll remember that Shipman had the most important column in the 1950s. If he said a horse had five legs and its head was attached to its tail, everyone said, “Why, of course, why didn’t we ever notice that before? Evan, what would we do without you?” Joe Hirsch worshiped him and thought his every word was scripture. It was, in any event, close enough to that as never makes no mind.
A day or so after Native Dancer retired in August 1954, injured in a race that he won by 9 lengths carrying 137 lbs (it’ll be a cold day in hell before we ever see anything like that again), Shipman wrote something to the effect that Native Dancer’s conformation was unlike anything ever seen before, that it represented an intermediate type–he denominated it the American type–and that if Native Dancer didn’t change the breed, it would be astonishing. Now I’m summarizing this from memory. I may be making it more forsightful that it was; but if I am, it’s not by much. I remember the thought to this day–more than 60 years later.
Well, that’s just what’s happened. (Isn’t it uplifting to read someone who actually knows what he’s talking about, and because he knows what he’s talking about can make accurate and significant predictions the way a well-established scientific theory does? God, I feel like I’ve done an important public service just recounting it.) Shipman’s death a few years later was publicly mourned by no less reticent a figure than Ernest Hemingway, whom he taught how to beat the races.
A couple of years ago, I suggested to Boojum’s Bonanza, which had been re-running some of Charles Hatton’s columns that it might do the same with Evan Shipman’s. He apparently didn’t take me up on it. If Hatton was racing’s Homer, then Shipman was it’s Newton. How many newspapers of any kind can claim they had two such writers at the same time–it’s nothing more than a racing sheet used by bettors to make a quick buck.
And to think Frank thought I wrote what I did because I’m a fan of Raise a Native. A fan. I did it from the perspective of a Thucydides. I was there. I reported what I saw. I saw a horse run three races; they were all in track record time–one stood for 37 years.
They were amazing. Burley Parke, who trained Occupation to beat Count Fleet twice (can you believe that!) and Noor to beat Citation 4 consecutive times (that’s easier to believe), called Raise a Native the fastest two year old he ever trained or ever saw. Hirsch Jacobs, then the winningest trainer in history, called him simply “The Greatest Two Year Old I’ve Ever Seen.” He went on to say that had Raise a Native stayed sound, he would have won the Triple Crown, he would never have been beaten, he would have become one of the greatest, if not the greatest, horse that ever lived. It’s all there for anyone to read. You can’t make this up.
A few weeks after Raise a Native broke down, a full page ad appeared in the Morning Telegraph replete with encomia. It seemed every trainer and his assistant wanted to say what a revelation Raise a Native was. I just happened to see all three races. I just happened to see a two-year old run five-and-a-half furlongs in 1:02.3, the first half under “restraint” and “in hand” at the finish–not my words, the chart callers.
Some years after Raise a Native broke down and went to stud, I had the opportunity to talk with Bill Winfrey, Native Dancer’s trainer. I wanted to know what he thought of Raise a Native. But he didn’t talk about Raise a Native, he told me instead about Native Dancer. He said Native Dancer was just as fast, but they realized they had to teach him to relax, restrain himself, harness his speed, or he’d run himself into the ground. He said Native Dancer was the fastest horse he’d ever trained (he trained Bold Lad and Buckpasser). I pointed out that he’d been quoted as implying that Bold Lad was faster than Native Dancer when he was training the former.
He said, “I did???”
I said, “Yea.”
He said, “I must have been drunk….Funny, I don’t drink.”
There’s a myth about Native Dancer, that all of his races were really close, that he waited until the very last seconds to launch an unbelievable move that snatched victory from the jaws of certain defeat. Nonsense (that word again). That happened exactly once–in the Metropolitan Mile, in which he truly pulled off the impossible. But the wonder is that the myth persists. After all, his past performances are available for anyone to see and read. Except for the Derby, which he lost, he won three races by a neck each, one of them the Met Mile. Otherwise horses were rarely seen near him at the wire.
I’ve recounted these various anecdotes to shed some light on why and how the Native Dancer/Raise a Native/Mr Prospector line became what is. In a sense it would be astonishing if it hadn’t. They redesigned the very species itself to look like themselves, so why would they not dominate it. It’s as if I completely restructured the English language to my specific needs and then–surprise!–became its best speaker and writer.
I hear people tell me all the time how great Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes was, how they’ve never seen anything like it, it was the greatest sports performance ever. They’re clearly Secretariat fans. I don’t dismiss their observations because of that, nor do I trivialize them. They’re in fact reporting what they saw–and are indeed telling the truth. It was exactly as they describe it.
I saw Raise a Native, I saw Dr Fager, I saw Secretariat, I saw Ruffian, I saw Ghost Zapper. These are the greatest American race horses I’ve ever seen. If I were pressed to select one it would be hard to choose between Secretariat and Raise a Native. Many people might think that ridiculous. I don’t. Hirsch Jacobs never lived to see Secretariat. But he certainly lived to see Dr Fager, and I’ve never heard that he retracted his observation. And Hirsch Jacobs was no fool and was never known before or after to comment on the relative greatness of horses. But this in no way enters into my evaluation of whether AP Indy is or is not the most classic influence on American breeding. He clearly isn’t.
Whether someone would have said rubbish to the notion that Native Dancer/Raise a Native would become the most classic influence in American breeding is beside the point. And, therefore, your gratuitous comment “That’s a fact.” is unworthy as it’s clearly not relevant to the central point. You were obviously annoyed by my rhetorical–and if I must say so myself–effective distinction between fact and opinion and how evidence relates to it.
Frank doesn’t need your help, and you do him a disservice.
Why don’t we end this now and accept the obvious: The Mr Prospector line, and not AP Indy, is the most classic influence in American breeding.
Cordially and respectfully,
Barry
P.S. To Frank,
I hope you won’t mind my continuing to submit comments from time to time as I have in the past. I enjoy the interchange with people who really understand the sport from a perspective other than betting. I must go to sleep now. I can’t wait to see whether I get up again.
I’m sorry, but I cannot read your reply. I simply don’t have the time. It is longer than the blog posts on here, and it is inconsiderate to readers.
Read my reply earlier. I quoted a passage by Frank, and everything he said is correct in that passage.
And as someone once wrote, “The lady doth protest too much,” applies here.
Everything he said wasn’t correct. Coastal ran in the 70s. He defeated Spectacular Bid in the Belmont. But that is trivial, as was your observation, which was not central to the discussion. Is this short enough?
Again, had you spent time carefully reading Frank’s passage I reproduced above, you would note that he was speaking of the Derby — not Belmont. Yes, Coastal won the Belmont — not the Derby. This is the third and last time I will exhort you to read carefully before you respond self indulgently.
Again, had you spent time carefully reading Frank’s passage I reproduced above, you would note that he was speaking of the Derby — not Belmont. Yes, Coastal won the Belmont — not the Derby. This is the third and last time I will exhort you to read carefully before you respond self indulgently.
The discussion related to the claim that AP Indy is “the most classic influence in American breeding.” That goes beyond the Kentucky Derby. Start from the top of the chain of emails. You do not get post hoc to determine the scope of the discussion.